As of Thursday, January 28, 2021, we were all talking about the short squeeze in Gamestop (GME) as the Robinhood trading platform stopped its customers from buying shares. One can easily argue that Robinhood’s actions were justified in a chaotic market or that it was an engineered move to save certain well-connected hedge funds. What cannot be argued is that, given Citadel LLC’s deep connections to both Robinhood and the profoundly irresponsible hedge funds that were blowing out as GME’s price blew up, there is at minimum an appearance of conflict.

This pattern of insane risk-taking (with the consequences of…

Now that $20,000 #Bitcoin is in view, perhaps it is time to revisit this thread from exactly a month ago (https://twitter.com/harrigan_pete/status/1318272524182958080). Oddly enough, it seems to have held up fairly well, even though there is a lot left to play out.

Anyway, here it is:

Are Michael Saylor and Jack Dorsey lighting the fuse for a #bitcoin melt-up? Will there be a feedback loop like the feedback loop that melted down real estate in 2008?

To clarify, a positive feedback loop can push things up or down. It is any process where the result of the process drives the process…

We were making progress toward equality. What changed?

At Grey Swan we welcome an honest discussion regarding inequality. If we wish to talk meaningfully about inequality, we can’t ignore changes to our monetary system, and how those changes inherently favor some of our population at the expense of others.

While recent events have shifted the country’s focus toward the very real challenges facing African Americans, we believe the largest source of economic disparity is being ignored. Sound money, return to American manufacturing, reducing regulation, can do more for solving inequality than political statements, but these changes would threaten the most powerful parts of society.

Progress Stopped in 1971

Volatility has shown no signs of slowing.

As Bitcoin heads into the halving, we enter a new phase. In the distant past (2011), mining could still take place on the desktops of a few hobbyists. They were smart, technically adept, and years ahead of most of us. But they did not need to plan for large scale spending and the attendant financial risks. Over the last decade, we have seen tremendous innovation in mining technology and methods.

But as the block reward is cut in half and as prices reach previously unseen levels, mining will require higher levels of capital and commitment. Whether in the form of…

Try to build here. I dare you.

Plan₿,@100trillionUSD on Twitter, (or PlanB, if you are an iPhone browser and can’t see the ₿) has announced his updated stock to flow model, transforming it into a cross asset model. For those not familiar Plan₿’s excellent and extensive work on stock to flow and its relationship to the price of Bitcoin over time, you can read his most recent article here. To simplify (or, more accurately, oversimplify), Mr. ₿ (or is it Mr. Plan?) proposes that there is a correlation between the market capitalization of Bitcoin and the ratio of existing Bitcoin to annual production of Bitcoin. …

Really not real…. yet.

The President has put together a task force on re-opening our economy, and that’s obviously a step in the right direction. But it won’t be as easy to restart this engine as many believe.

In many cases, supply chains have been interrupted, bent if not broken altogether. In some cases, farmers are having trouble selling crops as restaurant demand has disappeared. At the same time, a major pork processor in the U.S. just shut, threatening consumers’ ability to buy meat.

Even when businesses do re-open, how ready will people who were so recently unemployed be to spend? …

Can you figure out how to do it?

On March 25th, 2020, Pershing Square Management released a letter to investors. In that letter, they revealed that they had hedged themselves, quite effectively, against the decline the markets recently suffered. While many hedge funds were writing painful letters to investors, or avoiding writing letters at all, this one was probably fun to write.

The hedges put in place by Pershing had cost $27 million in premiums and commissions. At the date of the letter, Pershing had closed out the positions for a gain of approximately $2.6 billion. According to the investor letter, these gains offset all the losses…

The novel Coronavirus has shown that our current system, that relies on experts at the top, lacks either the skill or the inclination to protect us — our jobs, our savings, our lives. Yet, we give this system approximately $4.9 trillion every year to do just this. For this money, it has missed obvious risks, over and over. And it continues to ignore future calamities.

How much longer do we lend legitimacy to this system of experts that don’t work for us?

What Color Are All These Swans?

Should we really blame this system of experts for a crazy…

Let down by a system of experts that had promised competence.

The novel Coronavirus has shown that our current system, that relies on experts at the top, lacks either the skill or the inclination to protect us — our jobs, our savings, our lives. Yet, we give this system approximately $4.9 trillion every year to do just this. For this money, it has missed obvious risks, over and over. And it continues to ignore future calamities.

How much longer do we lend legitimacy to this system of experts that doesn’t work for us?

What Color Are All These Swans?

Should we really blame this system of experts for a crazy…

Going from hard to easy

Think what Apple did for the “home computer”.

Before Apple, the industry made kits for hobbyists. Many believed these kits represented the future, somehow. But the average person had no idea how to use them and for what. After Apple, computers became accessible. Anyone could put their hand on a mouse, and do interesting and useful things on the screen. Uses flourished and users grew.

Coinbase started us down this “Apple path.” Buying or selling Bitcoin on Coinbase is very simple. But that’s kind of all. …

Peter Harrigan

CEO and co-founder, Grey Swan Digital. Co-founder, Sentient Technologies. Former trader at CME, Pacific Exchange.

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